Models

Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 23 brokers · 571 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-29.

Broker models are built around a large, embedded FY-2026 acquisition that roughly doubles Devon's production to ~1.7 MMboe/d by FY-2027, with natural-gas volumes tripling. The step-up carries free cash flow from ~$2.9B to ~$7.3B and drives deep deleveraging, even as brokers split sharply on the deal's size and the pace of buybacks. Headline volumes and P&L are deeply covered (19-23 brokers); out-year, basin and reserve lines are much thinner.

Key drivers

The step-change lands in FY-2026 and is gas-heavy: modeled gas volumes rise fastest, shifting Devon's mix away from its oil-weighted base. The path flattens by FY-2028.

Line	FY-2025A	FY-2026E	FY-2027E	FY-2028E	YoY	Brokers
Total oil equivalent production per day(Mboe)	837,910 boe	1.38m boe	1.69m boe	1.71m boe	+64.8%	22
Total oil production per day(Mbpd)	388,071 bpd	497,532 bpd	559,101 bpd	562,474 bpd	+28.2%	22
Total NGLs production per day(Mbpd)	219,676 bpd	323,409 bpd	387,814 bpd	395,934 bpd	+47.2%	22
Total natural gas production per day(Mmcf)	1.38m mcf	3.36m mcf	4.49m mcf	4.54m mcf	+142.9%	22

Scale deflates unit costs: LOE per Boe modeled from $9.04 to $7.78

Every per-unit cost line grinds lower as volumes scale, with G&A per Boe falling the hardest. This is the margin case underpinning the cash-flow ramp.

Line	FY-2025A	FY-2026E	FY-2027E	FY-2028E	YoY	Brokers
Total lease operating expense per Boe($)	$9.04	$8.25	$7.84	$7.78	-8.7%	21
Production cost per unit($)	$11.72	$10.88	$10.28	$10.28	-7.2%	22
Total DD&A per Boe($)	$11.72	$11.25	$10.66	$10.53	-4.0%	22
General and administrative expense per Boe($)	$1.57	$1.39	$1.13	$1.04	-10.9%	22
Production and property taxes per Boe($)	$2.67	$2.58	$2.37	$2.41	-3.3%	21

Key drivers

Line	FY-2025A	FY-2026E	FY-2027E	FY-2028E	YoY	Brokers
Generation	—	—	—	—	—	—
EBITDA	$7.39bn	$11.74bn	$14.64bn	$14.73bn	+58.9%	16
Free Cash Flow	$2.87bn	$5.87bn	$7.33bn	$7.98bn	+104.9%	15
Uses	—	—	—	—	—	—
Capital expenditures	$3.67bn	$5.26bn	$5.62bn	$5.63bn	+43.2%	17
Repurchases of common stock	$1.01bn	$1.10bn	$2.52bn	$3.02bn	+9.0%	15
Leverage	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net debt	$7.13bn	$8.54bn	$4.11bn	$1.02bn	+19.9%	13

Where brokers split: the pace of deleveraging and capital return, not the volume path

FY-2027 net debt spans net-cash to $8.7B - the single widest strategic debate. Buyback and near-term FCF ranges echo the same question: how fast surplus cash is returned.

Line	Period	Median	Q1–Q3	Min–max	Brokers
Net debt	FY-2027E	$4.14bn	$2.54bn–$6.64bn	$-2.80bn–$8.68bn	11
Free Cash Flow	FY-2026E	$6.10bn	$5.67bn–$6.42bn	$2.52bn–$7.10bn	13
Repurchases of common stock	FY-2027E	$2.31bn	$2.00bn–$2.80bn	$1.39bn–$5.03bn	10
EBITDA	FY-2027E	$14.38bn	$13.83bn–$15.28bn	$12.75bn–$17.05bn	14

The doubling is an embedded acquisition - and its size is the real dispute

Brokers bake a large deal into FY-2026: the acquisition/divestiture line has a median of about -$2.8B but ranges past -$30B across a spread of models. That single assumption, more than commodity prices, explains the modeled step-up in volumes and cash flow.

Coverage caution: deep on the headline, thin and deal-distorted underneath

Headline volumes and P&L carry up to 23 brokers, but coverage falls to 9-14 by FY-2028 and to a handful on basin, reserve and F&D lines. Because the embedded acquisition ranges past -$30B, out-year aggregates blend deal and no-deal models - treat single points, not the spread, with caution.

Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.