Visible Alpha
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 23 brokers · 571 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-29.
Devon's model set is no longer a standalone forecast: brokers fold a large transaction into 2QFY-2026, roughly doubling modeled oil-equivalent output by FY-2027 and sharply raising the diluted share count. What does not double is per-share cash flow — discretionary cash flow per share is close to flat between FY-2026 and FY-2027 — so the accretion case rests on unit costs and gas realizations rather than on scale itself. Gas carries the added volume, the added revenue and most of the disagreement. Coverage is deep and fresh on the headline lines, and thin on almost everything that describes the deal.
Models now carry a company twice the size — and a share count to match
Oil-equivalent output rises by roughly two-thirds in FY-2026 and by a fifth again in FY-2027, but discretionary cash flow per share barely moves between those two years. Free cash flow per share is the better-behaved accretion line; the volume lines are close to settled, with narrow quartile bands.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volumes | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total oil equivalent production per day(Mboe) | 837,910 boe | 1.38m boe | 1.69m boe | 1.71m boe | +64.8% | 22 |
| Total oil production per day(Mbpd) | 388,071 bpd | 497,532 bpd | 559,101 bpd | 562,474 bpd | +28.2% | 22 |
| Total NGLs production per day(Mbpd) | 219,676 bpd | 323,409 bpd | 387,814 bpd | 395,934 bpd | +47.2% | 22 |
| Total natural gas production per day(Mmcf) | 1.38m mcf | 3.36m mcf | 4.49m mcf | 4.54m mcf | +142.9% | 22 |
| Scale | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue - Oil, NGLs & NG | $11.23bn | $18.78bn | $21.68bn | $22.22bn | +67.2% | 23 |
| EBITDA | $7.38bn | $11.87bn | $14.61bn | $15.01bn | +60.8% | 20 |
| Per share | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Shares - Diluted(M#) | 633.31m Number | 969.47m Number | 1.11bn Number | 1.06bn Number | +53.1% | 23 |
| Discretionary cash flow per share($) | $10.28 | $11.74 | $11.87 | $12.87 | +14.2% | 19 |
| Free cash flow (FCF) per share($) | $4.79 | $5.85 | $6.93 | $7.83 | +22.2% | 16 |
Gas carries the growth: oil revenue is flat after FY-2026 while gas revenue doubles
The lift is not the strip — brokers carry Henry Hub flat to slightly lower in FY-2027 — but the corporate realization, with gas ex-hedging moving from $1.65 to $2.57. That is a mix effect. Oil realizations fall with the deck over the same span, so oil revenue holds flat on materially higher volumes.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue - Natural gas - excl. hedging | $859.30m | $2.02bn | $4.20bn | $4.67bn | +134.6% | 20 |
| Revenue - Oil - excl. hedging | $8.99bn | $14.21bn | $14.33bn | $14.25bn | +58.1% | 21 |
| Revenue - NGLs - excl. hedging | $1.42bn | $2.38bn | $2.82bn | $2.86bn | +68.3% | 21 |
| Realized price | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Natural Gas price ex. hedging($) | $1.70 | $1.65 | $2.57 | $2.80 | -3.1% | 22 |
| Total oil price excl. hedging($) | $62.80 | $77.87 | $70.44 | $70.04 | +24.0% | 22 |
| Total NGLs price ex. hedging($) | $18.32 | $20.09 | $19.70 | $19.72 | +9.6% | 22 |
| Price deck | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Henry Hub : Natural gas price($) | $3.43 | $3.69 | $3.58 | $3.80 | +7.5% | 22 |
| WTI : Oil price($) | $64.85 | $78.92 | $71.71 | $71.29 | +21.7% | 22 |
The step-change lands in 2QFY-2026; 3QFY-2026 is the first clean run-rate
2QFY-2026 blends part-period contribution and carries an unusually low modeled gas realization on 11 brokers, so it reads poorly as a run-rate; take 3QFY-2026 onward instead. The new Marcellus gas line is where the added volume sits, and only three to five brokers carry it.
| Line | 3QFY-2025A | 4QFY-2025A | 1QFY-2026A | 2QFY-2026A | 3QFY-2026E | 4QFY-2026E | 1QFY-2027E | 2QFY-2027E | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total oil equivalent production per day(Mboe) | 842,156 boe | 842,725 boe | 837,400 boe | 1.32m boe | 1.67m boe | 1.69m boe | 1.69m boe | 1.70m boe | 20 |
| Total natural gas production per day(Mmcf) | 1.39m mcf | 1.38m mcf | 1.38m mcf | 3.10m mcf | 4.38m mcf | 4.43m mcf | 4.46m mcf | 4.48m mcf | 20 |
| Natural gas production per day - Marcellus(Mmcf) | — | — | — | 1.24m mcf | 1.96m mcf | 2.00m mcf | 2.01m mcf | 2.09m mcf | 5 |
| Shares - Diluted(M#) | 631.93m Number | 625.08m Number | 621.39m Number | 930.58m Number | 1.14bn Number | 1.14bn Number | 1.13bn Number | 1.12bn Number | 21 |
| Total Natural Gas price ex. hedging($) | $1.46 | $1.47 | $1.72 | $0.53 | $1.90 | $2.44 | $2.98 | $2.15 | 20 |
| Production cost per unit($) | $11.74 | $11.33 | $11.85 | $11.27 | $10.44 | $10.40 | $10.38 | $10.15 | 21 |
| Free Cash Flow | $730.33m | $610.60m | $827.58m | $1.35bn | $1.71bn | $1.79bn | $1.93bn | $1.68bn | 15 |
The argument is over the gas netback and what the balance sheet does with it
Volumes are close to agreed, so the value debate has moved to price realization and capital allocation. The buyback line rests on ten brokers and its range is more than three times wide, which is the single largest swing factor in the per-share case.
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Natural Gas price ex. hedging($) | FY-2027E | $2.59 | $2.44–$2.81 | $2.02–$2.92 | 17 |
| Operating income/(loss) - Oil, NGLs & NG | FY-2027E | $8.46bn | $7.36bn–$9.07bn | $5.95bn–$10.06bn | 13 |
| Net debt | FY-2027E | $4.48bn | $2.78bn–$6.67bn | $-2.80bn–$8.68bn | 16 |
| Repurchases of common stock | FY-2027E | $2.31bn | $2.00bn–$2.80bn | $1.39bn–$5.03bn | 10 |
Unit costs bend the right way: production cost per unit falls from $11.72 to $10.28
Every per-unit line brokers carry moves lower through FY-2027 — lease operating, production taxes, G&A and DD&A — and the quartile bands are tight, so this is closer to a shared assumption than one house's synergy math. Returns are the exception: the ROACE band stays wide throughout.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost per unit | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Production cost per unit($) | $11.72 | $10.88 | $10.28 | $10.28 | -7.2% | 22 |
| Total lease operating expense per Boe($) | $9.04 | $8.25 | $7.84 | $7.78 | -8.7% | 21 |
| Production and property taxes per Boe($) | $2.67 | $2.58 | $2.37 | $2.41 | -3.3% | 21 |
| General and administrative expense per Boe($) | $1.57 | $1.39 | $1.13 | $1.04 | -10.9% | 22 |
| Total DD&A per Boe($) | $11.72 | $11.25 | $10.66 | $10.53 | -4.0% | 22 |
| Returns | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Return on average capital employed (ROACE)(%) | 12.2% | 14.5% | 14.9% | 14.9% | +2.2pt | 16 |
Deal-specific lines are thin, and the transaction accounting is not settled
The consensus was last updated on 2026-07-29 and the headline lines are deep, but the deal detail is not: Marcellus volumes rest on three to five brokers, and per-basin capex and well counts thin further into FY-2028. The FY-2026 acquisition line spans from roughly break-even to tens of billions of dollars, which reads as a definitional split over what counts as consideration rather than a genuine forecast range. Treat per-basin and reserve detail as indicative only.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.