CapIQ
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-30.
Estimate momentum
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | FY2027 | $15.78bn | $23.95bn | $28.91bn | $26.62bn | +11.1% |
| Revenue | FY2028 | $19.22bn | $23.29bn | $28.02bn | $26.17bn | +12.4% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | $4.71 | $5.37 | $5.48 | $5.24 | -2.4% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028 | $5.46 | $5.34 | $5.86 | $5.73 | +7.4% |
The step-change lands in Q2 FY26: $6.2bn of consensus revenue against $3.8bn reported in Q1
Reported Q1 FY26 revenue was $3,807m on EBITDA of $1,907m; the Q2 FY26 consensus carries $6,189m of revenue and $3,378m of EBITDA. FY26 EBITDA of $12.5bn against $7,413m actual in FY25 embeds the same discontinuity. The feed supplies no driver for it, but the FY27 revenue momentum series moving from $15.8bn in late January to $26.6bn now shows when the tape absorbed it.
Revenue beat consensus seven quarters running, then missed 3% — while EPS missed four of eight
Revenue surprises ran +7%, +14% and +15% across the three quarters before the latest print, then turned to -3%. Normalized EPS over the same eight quarters splits four beats and four misses, with the two most recent both short. The pattern reads less like sandbagged guidance than like revenue upside that does not reach the EPS line.
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 1 consecutive miss; EPS (normalized): 2 consecutive misses.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | $3.93bn | $3.81bn | -3.0% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $1.09 | $1.04 | -4.2% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | $3.58bn | $4.12bn | +15.1% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.83 | $0.82 | -0.8% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2025 | Revenue | $3.80bn | $4.33bn | +14.1% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.94 | $1.04 | +10.6% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | $4.00bn | $4.28bn | +7.2% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.86 | $0.84 | -2.8% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | $4.38bn | $4.45bn | +1.7% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $1.23 | $1.21 | -1.5% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2024 | Revenue | $4.25bn | $4.40bn | +3.7% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $1.00 | $1.16 | +15.7% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | Revenue | $3.55bn | $4.02bn | +13.3% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $1.10 | $1.10 | +0.4% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2024 | Revenue | $3.89bn | $3.92bn | +0.6% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $1.27 | $1.41 | +11.2% | Beat |
EBITDA jumps nearly 70% in FY26 and 18% in FY27, then flattens at 2% in FY28
Free cash flow more than doubles to $6.3bn in FY26 and reaches $7.5bn by FY28, while net debt is modelled down from $9.0bn to $1.7bn over the same span. Revenue is the odd line out: the FY28 mean sits slightly below FY27, though on five estimates against eight.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.71bn | $23.82bn | $26.62bn | $26.17bn | — | 7 | $15.69bn / $17.23bn |
| EBITDA | $7.40bn | $12.55bn | $14.83bn | $15.10bn | — | 19 | $7.15bn / $7.61bn |
| EPS (normalized) | $3.95 | $4.90 | $5.24 | $5.73 | — | 20 | $3.85 / $4.20 |
| Free cash flow | $2.90bn | $6.28bn | $7.42bn | $7.49bn | — | — | — |
| Net debt | $6.98bn | $9.01bn | $5.59bn | $1.70bn | — | — | — |
21 analysts put FY26 EPS between $3.25 and $5.99 — a spread wider than half the $4.90 mean
For contrast, FY25 normalized EPS — a closed year — spans $3.85 to $4.20 on 20 analysts, so this width is new rather than habitual. EBITDA is the better-triangulated line at $11.2bn to $14.2bn on 17 estimates, while FY26 revenue carries only seven estimates across a $19.6bn–$27.6bn band.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Spread/mean is absolute high-low divided by absolute mean.
| Metric | Period | Mean | Low–high | Spread/mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2026E | $4.90 | $3.25–$5.99 | 55.9% | 21 |
| EBITDA | FY2026E | $12.55bn | $11.21bn–$14.21bn | 23.9% | 17 |
| Revenue | FY2026E | $23.82bn | $19.63bn–$27.58bn | 33.3% | 7 |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027E | $5.24 | $3.82–$6.87 | 58.2% | 22 |
Only seven analysts carry FY26 revenue, and FY29 rests on one to two estimates
The FY26 revenue consensus of $23.8bn rests on seven estimates against 21 for EPS and 17 for EBITDA, so the top line is the least-triangulated number on this page. FY28 revenue thins to five estimates and FY29 carries one revenue and two EBITDA estimates, which is why FY29 is left off the table above. Driver-level broker models sit on the Visible Alpha tab.