DVNNYSEThe short version
Devon Energy Corporation
Devon Energy is a US onshore oil and gas producer listed in New York that drills in four basins and sells everything it lifts at market prices; it merged with Coterra Energy in May 2026.
Daily closes since 1990: $124.36 in May 2008, $78.04 in June 2022, a $26.80 low on 8 April 2025, and $44.41 on 29 July 2026.
Mkt cap $22.5BNet debt $6.6BEV $29.1BP/E FY27E 8.5×ND/EBITDA FY27E 0.4×
$44.41
Share price, 29 July 2026
$51.2B
Market value on 1.15bn shares
5.91%
FY2025 adjusted FCF yield (on $28.1bn)
7.9 yrs
Proved reserve life at 2025 output
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Snapshot
Devon Energy Corporation in numbers
Price
$44.41as of 2026-07-29
Mkt cap
$22.5B
Net debt
$6.6B
EV
$29.1B
12m perf
+29.8%
3m ADV
$609.4M
| Year to Dec (USD) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 15.1B | 15.9B | 16.8B | 23.8B | 26.6B | 26.2B |
| EBITDA | – | – | – | 12.5B | 14.8B | 15.1B |
| EBIT | – | – | – | 6.4B | 8.1B | 8.2B |
| EBIT margin | – | – | – | 26.9% | 30.5% | 31.4% |
| EPS | 5.84 | 4.56 | 4.17 | 4.90 | 5.24 | 5.73 |
| EV/EBITDA | – | – | – | 2.3× | 2.0× | 1.9× |
| EV/EBIT | – | – | – | 4.5× | 3.6× | 3.5× |
| P/E | 7.6× | 9.7× | 10.6× | 9.1× | 8.5× | 7.7× |
| FCF yield | – | – | – | 27.9% | 32.9% | 33.3% |
| Gearing | 44.0% | 55.7% | 45.1% | – | – | – |
Consensus: S&P Capital IQ (CapIQ) · as of 2026-07-30Derived from run data; ratios use the latest price.
IThe business
What Devon sells
Devon lifts oil, gas and NGLs from four US basins and sells them at prices set elsewhere
FY2025 revenue from contracts with customers
Oil$8,906M53%
Marketing and midstream$5,563M33%
NGL$1,475M9%
Gas$842M5%
The marketing book is a resale operation: $5,563M of revenue against $5,635M of marketing and midstream expense in 2025.
- One segment, one country. Devon aggregates its US operating segments into a single reporting segment, its production activities are solely focused in the US, and all of roughly 2,200 employees sit there.
- Oil carries the economics. Oil is $8,906M of the $11,223M of upstream sales, gas $842M and NGLs $1,475M. No customer took more than 10% of sales in 2025 or 2024.
- A larger company since May 2026. The all-stock Coterra merger closed on 7 May 2026, taking combined 2026 guidance to 1,355-1,405 MBoe/d against the 836 MBoe/d Devon produced standalone in 2025.
Unit economics
Each barrel produced left $24.97 of field-level cash margin in 2025, down from $29.63
Field-level cash margin, total company
Field-level cash margin is oil, gas and NGL revenue less production expenses, a non-GAAP measure Devon reports by asset.
- Price is set outside the firm. As of January 2026 Devon's oil was sold 71% short-term variable and 29% long-term variable — nothing fixed — and the filing states the vast majority of production sells at market-sensitive prices.
- The Delaware Basin carries it. 59% of production and 57% of proved reserves, at $25.74 per Boe of field-level cash margin in 2025 against $30.56 in 2024.
- Volume was not the problem. FY2025 revenue rose 5.4% to $16,786M and operating cash flow rose to $6,711M while WTI averaged $64.87 against $75.79 the year before.
IIIThe story now
The fit
Does not fit the framework (P1 not met)
4-0
Year-10 durability gate not metTrimmed-mean probability 0.395, spread 0.13
5.91%
FY2025 adjusted FCF yield against a 10% bar409 bps short on the feature file's $28.1bn market cap
0.71
Probability the 2024-25 damage was temporaryThree blind judges returned 0.71, 0.68 and 0.78
High
Confidence tier recorded by the tallyTwo model families agreed; load-bearing spreads at most 0.15
- The gate binds and nothing offsets it. Six other criteria are met — the listing and size screens, the dated adverse event, the balance sheet, the forward yield and the diagnosis — and none of them can reverse a gate.
- The arithmetic behind the gate. Proved reserves of 2,428 MMBoe against 307 MMBoe produced is 7.9 years of life; oil sells 100% at variable prices; regulation is a rising cost rather than an entry barrier.
- The strongest counter-fact. Organic additions of 2,083 MMBoe against 1,490 MMBoe produced over FY2019-FY2025 is 140% replacement without buying it, and 188% in FY2025 alone.
No exclusion was hit, no China sensitivity flagged and nothing recorded as contested. One criterion, P2, is recorded cannot determine.
Year-10 durability
Reserve life has run between 6.2 and 8.1 years against a ten-year horizon
Proved reserve life vs the framework's ten-year horizon
- Everything sold in year 10 has to be found or bought first. Year-end 2025 reserves of 2,428 MMBoe cover 7.9 years at 2025 production, and the ratio has not reached the horizon in the visible history.
- Four of five conviction sources point the wrong way. Price set outside the firm, regulation as a cost that rises for everyone, capital intensity that maintains a depleting base, and a reserve base consumed inside ten years.
- The counter-fact. A 55-year operating history and a claimed ten-plus years of Delaware inventory on 746,000 net acres. The deciding sensitivity reprices 2025 volumes at 2020 realisations, cutting upstream sales 39.5%.
Cash consistency
The consistency test could not be determined: the adjusted series does not exist
Reported free cash flow and its rolling five-year average
Operating cash flow less capital expenditure from the filed statements. These are reported, not adjusted, figures.
- Recorded as cannot determine. Three of four seats declined to call P2: the structured cash-flow feed carries no acquisitions line and no share-based compensation before FY2018, so no five-year adjusted window closes.
- What reported cash does show. The three available rolling windows average $2,964M with a 15.5% coefficient of variation, and no year since 2019 is negative — 2020 still made $311M at a $39.59 WTI index.
- The counter-fact in the same numbers. Single years ran from $133M in FY2019 to $5,988M in FY2022, and all three windows share that peak. On the three adjusted years that can be built the series falls: $2,027M, $1,560M, $1,661M.
The drawdown
A 43% fall from $47.03 to $26.80, and the price is back at $44.41
Measured instead from the June 2022 peak of $78.04, the same April 2025 low is a 65.7% fall.
- The dated trigger. Tariffs and planned OPEC+ output increases, named in Devon's own filing: the shares fell 29.3% across four sessions from 2 to 8 April 2025, on 2.85 times median volume.
- Capitulation is not confirmed. The 20-day volume gauge peaked at 1.92 times the trailing median in December 2024, below the 2 times line, and reached only 1.45 times at the April low.
- The window has closed. The shares sit within 5.6% of the July 2024 peak, and the heaviest month of the whole period was March 2026 merger news at 2.87 times median volume.
Damage math
The market took out $12.66bn at the trough; the filed asset value fell $1.0bn
NPV of the problem against the price damage at the 8 April 2025 trough
- The problem, sized from the filings. Devon's net-earnings bridge puts the 2024-to-2025 realised-price effect at roughly $1.3bn pre-tax, $1,033M after tax; the standardized measure fell from $19,770M to $18,765M.
- The ruling. Three blind judges reading opposing briefs put the impairment at 0.71 temporary, order-stable within 0.02, leaving an $8.39bn gap at the trough — 66% of the fall.
- The counter-fact, decisive on timing. At $44.41 the residual damage against the July 2024 peak is $1.64bn, below even the two-year temporary case, so no positive gap survives at this price.
IVThe price
Yield vs the bar
Adjusted free cash flow yields 5.91% where the moderate balance-sheet bar is 10%
Free-cash-flow yield by basis
FY2025 adjusted (on $28.1bn)
5.9%
FY2023-25 average adjusted (on $28.1bn)
6.2%
FY2027 consensus adjusted, revenue-scaled charge (on $51.2bn)
9.9%
FY2025 reported (on $28.1bn)
11.1%
FY2027 consensus adjusted, trailing charge (on $51.2bn)
11.4%
- The balance sheet picks the bar. Net debt of $7,005M against $7,516M of EBITDA is 0.93 times, which is moderate, so the reference line is 10% rather than the 8-9% fortress line.
- The adjustment, not the operations, puts it below. Reported FY2025 free cash flow of $3,119M less $99M of share-based compensation less the $1,359M five-year acquisition average is $1,661M.
- Forward, it turns on one convention. FY2027 consensus clears the bar at 11.44% carrying Devon's trailing acquisition charge, and misses at 9.88% on a charge scaled to combined revenue.
The feature file's $28.1bn market cap uses a pre-merger share count; on the corrected $51.2bn the FY2025 adjusted miss widens rather than closes.
Valuation
Second-cheapest of seven US independents on forward earnings, with the sell side already positive
US independent producers, 31 July 2026
| Company | Market value ($B) | Forward P/E | Price/sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| Devon (DVN) | 52.05 | 8.65 | 3.25 |
| Ovintiv (OVV) | 17.21 | 8.43 | 1.81 |
| EOG Resources | 79.20 | 8.96 | 3.36 |
| Permian Res. (PR) | 17.84 | 9.83 | 3.51 |
| Diamondback (FANG) | 57.09 | 10.47 | 3.95 |
| Expand (EXE) | 21.77 | 11.36 | 1.72 |
| ConocoPhillips | 146.78 | 11.99 | 2.47 |
- Cheap on the multiple. 8.65 times forward earnings is 21% below the seven-name median, and the 3.25 price-to-sales figure is overstated because trailing revenue holds only about two months of Coterra.
- Little left to convert. Roughly 21 buy and 4 outperform ratings against 2 holds and no sells, with a mean target near $59 against the $44.41 close.
- The long chart is round trips. $124.36 in May 2008, $78.04 in June 2022, $26.80 in April 2025; regaining the 2022 peak takes a 75.7% move from here.
Multiples and rating counts come from dated web lookups on 2 August 2026, not from a filing page.
The arithmetic ahead
The float retires in 6.9 years of consensus cash, against a three-year reference
6.9 yrs
To retire the float on FY2027 consensus free cash flowThe framework's absurdity check looks for roughly 3
34-51 yrs
At the disclosed base repurchase rate$1.0-1.5bn a year against $51.2bn of market value
$5,122M
Adjusted free cash flow a year the 10% bar asks forFY2027 consensus gives $5,858M or $5,061M by convention
29.3 mo
Median time to regain a prior peak since 199015 falls of 35% or deeper; 4 of 13 recoveries inside 18 months
- The tally computes no re-rating math. Its recorded note: re-rating math unavailable because the applicable bar or normalized adjusted FCF is missing. No figure was substituted in its place.
- The calendar the arithmetic would run on. The first combined quarter reports on 4 August 2026, a roughly $200m synergy exit rate is due in December 2026 and a roughly $980m run rate at the end of 2027.
- Base rates from Devon's own history. Of fifteen completed falls of 35% or deeper since 1990, the median depth was 47.2% and the median run to the trough 4.9 months; thirteen regained the peak, two never did.
What to watch
The damage looks mostly temporary; the year-10 gate and the rising share count are what fail
- 01Total field-level cash margin stays below $25/Boe, or Delaware stays below $26/Boe, despite WTI averaging at least $65.
- 02YE2026 proved reserves fall on non-price revisions, or the standardized measure drops materially at a flat SEC price deck
- 032027 exit run-rate synergies land far below the ~$980m target, or the $8bn repurchase goes largely undrawn
- 04capital allocation pivots to debt paydown over repurchases
This distils a fixed fit test built tab by tab, on the run's deterministic tally.
Compiled from the full report · 2026-08-02 · For information, not investment advice.